CA 11

CA-11 Narrative

One sentence from a ContraContra Times article from Lisa Vorderbrueggen really smacked me between the eyes. From an 8.18.2006 article about Pombo running around pretending that after 14 years of traffic congestion he is now committed to solving the problem by a staging a campaign event with a former "top Republican Party executive"...

From a campaign perspective, it doesn't hurt Pombo to appear at the helm of Bay Area leaders in a collaborative discussion with a high-ranking federal official about how to fix congestion on I-580.

On the other hand, Pombo probably doesn't need to stage such an event to win.

While political experts say Republicans are vulnerable in the wake of public ire over the Iraq War and President Bush, few predict Pombo will lose.

Umm Lisa?

From your own reporting on 8.13.2006...

The Cook Political Report's analysis last week lists 10 GOP-held seats as toss ups but Pombo's is not one of them. It ranks the district as "leaning Republican," which is more competitive than "likely Republican."

And most recently from the Cook political report...

GOP INCUMBENTS IN DANGER: Rep. Barbara Cubin’s weak showing in yesterday’s Republican primary for Wyoming’s At-large seat highlights a significant weak spot for House Republicans: the considerable number of incumbents in safe Republican districts who are struggling. Other seats in danger include Reps. Richard Pombo (CA-11), Jean Schmidt (OH-02), Don Sherwood (PA-10), Randy Kuhl (NY-29) and Marilyn Musgrave (CO-04).

Sorry but the phrases "leaning Republican" and "in danger" mean that Pombo does, in fact, have to "stage such events". Not to mention Pombo's name included with incumbents like Don Sherwood (he was accused of choking his mistress) and Jean Schmidt (she called John Murtha a coward on the House floor).

Also, Pombo has to "stage such events" because he has nothing else to run on other than staged events. (You know, kinda similar to what some call the "Photo Op Presidency".)

I take no issue with Lisa V doing her best to handicap this race but lines like the one she invoked above quickly change the CA-11 narrative from "it's an uphill battle for McNerney" to "McNerney cannot win". The latter narrative simply has no basis in reality.

posted by brian @ 2:46 PM